Final Cut Studio 4 to Abandon Core Users? (UPDATE: Apple Responds: Untrue)
May 18, 2010
Apple's new target demographic for Final Cut Studio, should the rumors be believed.
UPDATE: Apple has issued an official response to CNET.com, saying that the pro customers will “love” the next version of the editing suite. While it doesn’t eliminate the chance that Apple will gear FCS3, in my mind the fact that Apple went out of their way to squash the rumor suggests it’s untrue. My prediction is that Final Cut Express will receive the modified consumer-friendly changes, with Final Cut Pro’s focus remaining as is.
Apple Insider reports that Apple is looking to gear the new version of Final Cut Studio towards consumers instead of professionals, despite the fact that Final Cut Studio is a professional program. Not that this rumor isn’t completely surprising considering Apple’s recent iPhone/iPad trend, but this would be a serious mistake on Apple’s part. Creative Professionals would be forced to use different software (most notably a certain offering from Apple’s very public enemy), meaning Apple couldn’t lead the charge regarding video formats, meaning ProRes, H.264, and even Quicktime’s future could be left in trouble. This would resonate not only through the creative community, but ultimately to the iPhone OS, with less content available in Apple’s desired formats.
Out of fear, and hoping for some reassurance, I sent Steve Jobs another email. I reposted it after the jump.Mr. Jobs,
Word on the street is that Final Cut Studio 4 is going to abandon it’s professional roots and focus more towards prosumers, akin to Randy Ubillos’ iMovie revamp. If this ends up being the case, I’m afraid you will lose a ton of professional customers… including a ton of high profile guys, i.e. Francis Ford Coppolla, Coen Bros. Remember: Professionals don’t work with amateur tools.
I seriously think this would be a major mistake. Rather than uproot the foundations of the professional program many rely on for a living, why not revamp Final Cut Express into something completely different than Final Cut Pro, and develop/market them separately? That way you could have iMovie for beginners, Final Cut Express for prosumers, and Final Cut Pro for advanced customers, rather than iMovie for beginners, Final Cut Express for intermediates, and Final Cut Studio for prosumers, which is what the new rumors seem to propose. Just my two cents. Of course the rumors could be bullshit.
Please, in your extraordinary success with the iPad/iPhone, don’t forget about the loyal customers who helped keep Apple alive in it’s time of need: the creative professionals. Don’t abandon us by taking away our rocket ships and giving us bicycles.
Sincerely,
Michael
Yeah, i wrote him (again) too. My sense is this is bullshit. Here’s what i think is happening: Better quality video editing for the iPad. Final Cut team is far too far along with the next release. In fact, they may be so close, Randy has peeled some off for iPad iMovie. But I bet new FCP is closer than we think, and will be a large-scale release.
Zzzzzzz …
here is something to read…..
Why Apple Insider couldn’t be more wrong!
Today Apple Insider got the echo chamber of the Internet buzzing, with their post Apple scaling Final Cut Studio apps to fit prosumers by Prince McLean. It’s a great headline and I can’t blame Prince McLean and Apple Insider for running with it: it’s bound to get them a whole bunch of links.
However, they couldn’t be more wrong. Factually they have the entire history of Pro Apps at Apple just plain wrong. That’s probably because Prince McLean isn’t exactly well known in the professional video communities and because that history is only known by those who where paying attention at the time. (And also, Apple have definitely encouraged the inaccurate version of the Pro Apps history mistakenly quoted at Apple Insider.)
More on that in a minute. Aside from the factual errors in the history, I think they have had some data from an insider that they’ve totally misinterpreted and the true interpretation is incredibly positive for Final Cut Pro.
Now for the standard disclaimer. I’m not a rumor monger. I gather data from a lot of different places; have watched the professional video software industry closely on a day-to-day basis; and am very good at interpreting and interpolating meaning from the data points. However, I do have a way-above-average history of accuracy in my predictions, something that cannot be said for Apple Insider (G5 Powebook anyone? Where’s my Final Cut Extreme Apple Insider?)
In the late 1990’s Macromedia were going head-on against Adobe: whatever Adobe could, they could do better. There was Freehand against Illustrator; Fireworks to ImageReady; Dreamweaver vs GoLive; and there was to be KeyGrip against Premiere. In fact Macromedia snagged the three core members of the development team for Premiere 1-4.2 and they started work on KeyGrip. KeyGrip had evolved to become Final Cut by NAB 98, where it was being shown in a small demo room in the basement. That was my first exposure and I still have the T shirt (which fits a much younger man).
Macromedia suddenly decided to stop fighting Adobe and jump on this new thing called the Internet. Good call. So Macromedia had no need for Final Cut and where in fact shopping it around before NAB 98. Media100, who were going to use KeyGrip on PCs with their Vincent Card but became frustrated with how far behind schedule it was they went on to develop Finish, passed on buying Final Cut, probably because of the history. 1998 was the year that Media100 launched a Windows app. Premiere had gone cross platform at 4.2 and Premiere 6 was developed for both platforms.
This was the year that it wasn’t looking all that good for Apple. NAB was PC all the way. Even Avid had endured the “we’re going only to PC” debacle/rumor/whatever.
Apple eventually purchased Final Cut about three weeks after NAB in reality to ensure that there would continue to be a Non Linear Editing application on the Mac. I also believe that someone figured that Apple’s FireWire (they developed it) port combined with the iLink on Sony’s DV cameras just released (in reality, also FireWire) combined with the new software could sell some Macs. That was a smart move. When I saw Final Cut in March 98, it was working with some Targa dual stream cards, which was not as robust as when Final Cut Pro was release at NAB 99. But Final Cut Pro had native FireWire/DV support: perfect with those new Blue and White G3 towers with native FireWire!
But Apple bought Final Cut Pro as a defensive (and marketing) move. I seriously doubt that there was a cohesive Professional Applications Strategy in 1999. Or 2000. But by NAB 2002 there had been some serious planning going on. By then (or shortly before) there was definitely a Pro Apps strategy in place. (If I recall correctly, largely attributable to Richard Kerris.)
I do know that the Final Cut Pro team were a whole lot more open then than they are now. It was a different time at Apple. I’m very confident, from conversations at that time, and when Apple went on the Pro Apps buying spree, that the strategy of a Pro Apps group came well after the Final Cut Pro purchase. When Apple saw how successful Final Cut Pro had become, and how valuable its nascent involvement in the professional film and television world was for selling iMacs with iMovie in the heartland, a Pro Apps strategy evolved.
And Apple went on a buying spree:
eMagic (Logic, Logic Pro, Garageband and Soundtrack Pro have evolved from that purchase)
Prismo Graphics for “LiveType” (a Cocoa version of India Pro)
Nothing Real (Shake) and Silicon Grail
Astarte (DVD Studio Pro 1-1.5)
Spruce (DVD Studio Pro 2 onward)
The Motion team who had previously created combustion and it’s ancestors (well, they had just been let go from discreet and Apple employed the whole team so technically Motion was developed by Apple employees)
and so on.
Apple have poured a lot of money into the Pro Apps and in turn it’s made them a lot of profit on the software division. “Highly Profitable” according to one very reliable source.
So, to the substance of the Apple Insider rumor: is Apple turning Final Cut Pro into Final Cut Prosumer? Let’s consider some data points.
Apple does not like to be second best in anything. Consider DVD Studio Pro. DVDirector, the product they purchased Astarte for, was released by Apple as DVD Studio Pro 1 – effectively DVDirector 2.0. There was a 1.5 release but DVD Studio Pro was not getting the professional respect that Apple hoped for. (Was that polite enough?) So they purchased Spruce. Although it was PC only and immediately killed, Apple bought the best available knowledgeable engineering team and abstract layer code. This became DVD Studio Pro 2 with the Pro Apps kit interface. (The first app with that Interface Framework.) They genuinely want Final Cut Pro – or its successor – to be a truly great application for their target market, which may not be senior editors on studio pictures!
Apple derives a lot of benefit from the Pro Apps.
The division is highly profitable. (500,000 users upgrade a version of the Studio and it’s $150 million). Not iPod territory but respectably profitable. (And they do help sell some of those expensive MacPros.)
The technology is now interwoven throughout their iApps.
There is a huge marketing advantage from the Pro Apps, such that it’d be worth keeping them if they were only just profitable. Every time a documentary is nominated for an Academy Award edited on Final Cut Pro, Apple sell 10,000 copies of Final Cut Express and an iMac or MacBook Pro in the heartland – it’s aspirational but affordable.
Apple are pushing all their applications to 64bit and to Cocoa. Final Cut Pro has a harder-than-most development path because of the history (cross platform app to OS 9 to OS X to Intel and now to Cocoa and 64bit).
Apple need to come out with a very strong version at the next release. Avid have been very strong with their recent Media Composer releases, particularly with workflow features that editors appreciate (a better open timeline than Final Cut Pro, for example). Adobe have just released a version of Premiere Pro that leverages Apple’s hardware for performance far better than Final Cut Pro does. Apple know this.
Apple has the financial resources to wait until something is right, rather than release a half-finished version.
Apple does not leak. OK, I think I’ve substantiated that Randy Ubillos is back in a senior designer position (or more) but really, Apple employees don’t leak. They’re my worst source of information that isn’t necessarily public knowledge. Randy, for those who don’t know, was one of those original three that went from Adobe to Macromedia: he was the original designer of Premiere 1-4.2. He is also the lead designer for Aperture and iMovie 09 was almost a personal project before Apple picked it up.
So Apple Insider have not had a review copy of any development version of Final Cut Pro (next); it’s almost certain they don’t have any substantial information at all, just a snippet. Perhaps a quick view of an interface or mockup? There isn’t anything substantial in the article.
Ok, given all that, here’s why I think Apple Insider are about as wrong as anyone could be. They got something: a tip or a sneak peak or something. The most likely thing they saw that could lead to this type of misinterpretation is they saw, or more likely someone visiting Apple saw, a screen supposedly from the next version of Final Cut Pro and it looked, superficially like iMovie. Combine that with Randy Ubillos’ move back to Final Cut Pro and the leap is obvious, but wrong.
Apple appear to be revising the Pro Apps kit from it’s original incarnation in 2002-03. We’ve seen hints of more HUD (the white-on-black interface for Motion’s floating palettes) like interface design in places, and that look is very similar to iMovie 09. They’re looking for designers now. It’s likely that whatever the current interface design is, it’s not there yet or they wouldn’t be hiring designers now!
Let me go out on a limb and say that it much more likely means that Final Cut Pro is getting a very thorough rewrite. Not just a 64 bit/Cocoa rewrite (and hopefully take advantage of modern OS X features) but a complete rethink.
When iMovie 09 was demonstrated at LAFCPUG, there were a lot of people who wanted iMovie features incorporated into Final Cut Pro. Not dumb Final Cut Pro down to iMovie but take the best features of iMovie and incorporate them. While you’re at it, if nothing’s sacred in the current design, let’s take the best from Avid (metadata management – the groundwork has been happening since FCP 5.1.2 and the evidence is in the XML); the importance of performance from Adobe (strap in Grand Central Dispatch and OpenCL and make a showcase for Apple’s technologies); the best of iMovie.
This actually makes me much more hopeful and positive for the next version of Final Cut Pro. It suggests that Apple are serious about rewriting and not just changing out the minimum possible. And if it looks a little like iMovie 09, that wouldn’t be all bad. (But could you borrow customizable interfaces from Adobe, please?)
That’s why I believe Apple Insider misinterpreted the snippet of information and that the opposite is true: Apple are serious about making the next release the killer release everyone is hoping for.
Above all else, I reserve the right to be wrong. It’s a guess: an intelligent guess, yes.
its the worlds longest guess.
yeah! and I hope it’s the right one!!
Put this bullshit to rest….final cut is going to be fine….read this…..
CNET reports that Apple has issued a response to yesterday’s report that the company is working to “rethink” its Final Cut Pro offerings as the balance of usage of the video production software has shifted towards “prosumers” from the high-end professionals it originally targeted.
“Final Cut Pro is the first choice for professional video editors, and we’ve never been more excited about its future,” Apple spokesman Bill Evans told CNET. “The next version of Final Cut is going to be awesome, and our pro customers are going to love it.”
Apple currently offers Final Cut Express, targeted at prosumers, which CNET notes should leave the Final Cut Pro team free to continue catering to high-end video professionals with the Final Cut Studio package.
Apple’s comments don’t necessarily rule out the report’s claims of the company looking to bring in more “prosumer-friendly” features to the full Final Cut Studio package, but do suggest that it is not planning on forgetting its professional audience with future releases.
@digitaldreamfilms
Thanks for that CNET update. That is a definite sigh of relieve for us professional users. I own a production studio with over 26 Macs built around FCS and Apple products. If they abandoned the pro market, that would be the end of my studio and my passion and support for anything Apple. We have already been burned once when they discontinued the Xserve RAID. Once is quite enough.
I feel the same way…I think all will be good now….u know this is the first time that i know of..that apple officially really said what they going to do…feels real good…..haaaaaaaaa
I’ll believe it when I see it! I have been slowly losing faith in Apple’s commitment to Pro Apps…sigh! So in the meantime I’ll be getting reacquainted with Avid again
…it would have been nice if someone would have asked steve jobs at all D…What’s happening with the pro apps….and final cut?….that would have been great…don’t you all think?
apple is a hardware company, that happens to sell music and third party applications. people need to figure it out.
MIKE…what happen…..you don’t talk anymore here>>>>>>???
You guys think Apple managed to get their editing working good with h264 video since the iPhone 4 can do editing in iMovie on the iphone?
All this new technology will be great for Final Cut. It´s so clear that all their inventions goes into consumer products first and then into Pro software when it´s stable.
Anyone heard anything new about the upcoming fcp?
By the way, Apple just 2 days ago posted another job for visual design: Requisition Number: 5211465
Job title: Sr. User Interface Designer, ProApps
This is good for us all! Might be a bit late or not…
well that’s good….but that tells me…it won’t be out for another year,,,2011…wish it was this year…but you never know….maybe it will be a nice Christmas….
what happen to this site……no new news here in a L O N G time…..is this site dead…if so RIP
Even tho there is no new articles, or predictions .. you can still entertain yourself by going back and reading older articles, and crappy predictions. Take the iPad prediction for example … quotes like
“Steve Jobs, Mr. Genius-Visionary did not see what the market wanted accurately”
“Unfortunately, and I say this with great surprise and sadness, Apple messed up royally.”
“People do not want a fancy upgrade to the iPod Touch in a 10 inch device.”
So, after selling 3 million of these devices that no one wants … in 80 days … or just go back and read the 38 different final cut predictions … those are great.
you gotta love this site…..
true!
WOW…May 18, 2010…is the last time this site was updated……Will it ever come back to life……..??????????
Guess not. Could some one start a FCPrumors.com so we can get all info in the same place? I´m not good with forumsites and newssystems.
Any new info about the next FCP?
i suggest we just use this thread as the new rumor site. just for the sake of simplicity.
i’ll start.
rumor: from my source. fcp is dead.
yeah…this site is dead…………..RIP
well…im almost ready to delete macsoda…..to bad it was a NICE SITE….RIP
I did it….I deleted macsoda……GOOD BYE ALL..
Well all, Im back….and mike will be back too…..this site is going be THE BEST SITE EVER…..new news….and new hope………I hope!
any one out there…any news about final cut studio 64bit??
Not a single word. Can’t wait no more, need a new fcp!!!
chribbe you R right……what the hell is going on with FCP…no news…no word….no nothing……I mean apple can say something..I think FCP is DEAD>>>>The only hope is that they are coming out with new mac pros….and who will bye one…but PROS…who use FCP…………..and if they are coming out with THE NEW FCP……………………………………………WHEN??????
mike …where are you…..we need news……on FCP
I do think Apple should tell us about the future of FCP. Shure all this hypebuliding is cool in a way, but this is our tool we are talking about. We make a livinbg out of it and we invest a lot of money in Apple products.
I don´t think FCP i dead but i do think they are working hard on getting a version out that will rock our world. Looking back, FCP hasn´t brought any cool new features in a few years like it did from version 1 to 5. Every new release was awsome back then. Now i think they are working on the new Cocoa version of FCP but it probably took longer than they thought. 64bit, integrated colorcorrection from Color, Soundtools from Soundtrack and textgenerator ala Motion. Modern UI like iMovie 9 and great integration with iOS devices. Will use GPU more. The way we work today (filebased) compared to 5 years ago (tape/film) makes FCP kind of outdated with its UI. They have to change the UI to accommodate the fast moving broadcast and web productions of today, but also make it more robust for large hollywood movieprojects with VFX and other tricky parts. Also 3D stereo… Since DVD studio won´t do BlyRay i think they´ll release a html5 tool for making those nice iTunes extra packages.
But i would like to hear a timeframe for the next release. This year, next or in 5?
I think you are right Chribbe….there will be a new FCP….and if apple is still apple it will be great…..BUT WHEN?????…if it’s this year or next year or the year after just give us a hint….APPLE DO YOU HEAR US….TELL US SOMETHING!!…good or bad something!
Any new FCP should consider the types of editing we do and custom configure the project window accordingly, yes, its kinda there now, but perhaps DSLR users who may need some extra pro tools may want a simpler interface, than say the Cohen brothers or a indie documentary maker. I myself have always snubbed FCE for using Apple Intermediate codec, as I used to shoot, and want to edit HDV for small file sizes. Nowadays, hard drives are cheap and now Im using DSLRs and AVCHD and transcoding to ProRes, I see lots more potential for FCE to be spruced up for prosumers. Basically, we have seen massive change in the past 2 years and Apple will no doubt be working hard to release a knockout version of FCP to beat Premiere, Avid and the rest of the competition. I read once how Steve Jobs told the first iDVD team to create the app – he drew a square on a chalk board and told them it all had to fit in the one pane. Keep it simple. Simple is good. Who needs or wants a cluttered interface. I want native editing, quick compositing and fast previews. Make the window fit the workflow – bring it on ; )
My organization has over 50 apple computers. If Final Cut Pro were not the industry-leader, we’d have ZERO. Growing up, I hated macs because they generally provide less control for advanced users, and because they’re expensive.
But, we work in video, and collaborating with anyone else in the field meant using FCP, and using FCP means using Apple. Now every staff member has a macbook, our labs are iMacs, and our Edit Suites are all Mac Pros. We’d likely have no iPhones or XServes either.
If they abandoned Final Cut, we’d abandon Apple, and we are the market that makes Apple cool.
We put up with their ridiculous incompatibility with Flash/Adobe and squabbles with Google only because of FCP.
right on!
End of Life for Final Cut Studio, I have it from the VP of marketing, so no more speculation, its true, Final Cut Studio is Dead…
So much for Apple and its (were not abandoning you really)
Remember Hyper card, and the famous last words of Apple, yep they said oh no were not going to abandon you were going to screw you over, in your sleep, (allegedly) Watch your back,
Well, this rumor finally became true, Apple has abandoned pro users, and released FCP X and is not a pro software is for consumers